In 2025 the AL East looked exactly like the chaos I grew up with. Toronto and the Yankees both finished 94-68, Boston was right behind at 89-73, and even the “down” teams in Tampa Bay and Baltimore still felt more dangerous than their records.
The Blue Jays took the division on the head to head tiebreaker, rode that all the way to an American League title, then lost the World Series in seven games to the Dodgers. The Yankees grabbed the top Wild Card, beat Boston in a three game series, and then lost the ALDS 3-1 to Toronto. The Red Sox pushed their way back into October. The Rays and Orioles both slid to the bottom of the standings, but neither feels like a long term pushover.
And now, before the confetti from the Dodgers title has even fully settled, the Jays just handed Dylan Cease a seven year, 210 million dollar contract to drop another strikeout machine into a rotation that already helped knock the Yankees out. Boston traded for Sonny Gray to boost their own rotation. The arms race label is not hyperbole. It is the reality of this division.
So the question I keep asking myself is simple. Where do the Yankees really sit in this thing, and who is actually chasing whom?
The Blue Jays: The New Standard
As much as it pains my Yankee brain to write this, right now the Blue Jays are the standard everyone else in the division is chasing.
They matched the Yankees at 94-68, but did it with a different shape. Toronto scored 798 runs, allowed 721, and finished with a plus 77 run differential. That is not as gaudy as the Yankees plus 164, but it fit their identity. The Jays were a balanced club, with an offense built around bats like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, and a pitching staff that was good enough to hold leads once they got them.
Then October happened. Toronto did not just sneak through the bracket. They won the ALDS over the Yankees, took the ALCS, and pushed the Dodgers to seven games in the World Series before losing 4-3. That is 10 playoff wins and a pennant. That matters.
Now they have added Dylan Cease, who has led the league in strikeouts over the last five years and just signed the biggest free agent deal in franchise history. He joins a rotation that already includes Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and rising arm Trey Yesavage.
From a Yankees perspective, here is how I see the Jays:
- Strengths: Deep, dangerous lineup, frontline pitching that just got better with Cease, strong run prevention, and proof of concept in October.
- Weaknesses: Bullpen depth can still be tested, and their core is more in its prime than its early growth phase, so injuries would hit hard.
- Trend: Firmly trending up. They just won the league and are still spending aggressively.
If you are building a team in the Bronx right now, this is the group you are measuring yourself against.
The Orioles: Window Delayed, Not Closed
On paper, the 2025 Orioles look like a nice little break for the Yankees. Baltimore went 75-87 and finished last in the AL East, a long way from their 100 win, “up next in the American League” vibes from earlier in the decade. Brandon Hyde lost his job in May and Tony Mansolino finished the year as interim manager.
In real life, I do not relax when I look at them.
The young core that scared everyone a year or two ago is still mostly in place. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and a pipeline that has been near the top of the sport for years are not going anywhere. A down year with some regression, injuries and growing pains does not erase that.
From a Yankees lens:
- Strengths: High end young position talent, strong farm system, front office that has shown real patience and discipline.
- Weaknesses: Pitching depth is still more projection than proof, and the step back in 2025 exposed how thin they can be when the kids hit turbulence.
- Trend: Short term down, medium term still scary.
If the Orioles figure out their rotation and decide to push chips in with their prospect depth, they become a serious problem again very quickly. For now, they give the Yankees a little breathing room in the standings, but their presence should create urgency in how New York treats its current window.
The Red Sox: Closer Than I Want To Admit
I wish I could write that the Red Sox are stuck in neutral. They are not.
Boston finished 89-73, third in the AL East, with a run differential of plus 110. They scored 786 runs and allowed 676, a big improvement from the 747 runs they gave up in 2024. That jump on the run prevention side is a red flag for me in New York.
They did not just sneak into October either. The Sox took a Wild Card spot and only saw their season end when the Yankees knocked them out in a three game series. Then they responded to that by trading for Sonny Gray, who is coming off a 14-8, 4.28 ERA, 201 strikeout season and still knows how to navigate the American League.
The lineup is not the same star cluster it was in the Mookie Betts era, but there is plenty of talent there with Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Triston Casas and a wave of athletic, homegrown pieces.
From my Yankees chair:
- Strengths: Improving rotation, solid if streaky offense, and a front office that finally seems committed to run prevention again.
- Weaknesses: Bullpen can wobble, and some of the offensive core has health and consistency question marks.
- Trend: Clearly trending up. They went from 81 wins in 2024 to 89 wins in 2025 and just added another veteran arm.
I do not think the Red Sox are at the Jays or Yankees level yet, but they are not far off, and the distance could vanish quickly if they hit on one more big move or another young player pops.
The Rays: Down Year, Same Old Problem
The Rays are the horror movie villain of this division. You think you have finally killed them, and then they crawl out of the grave with a new batch of 2.8 WAR infielders you have never heard of.
In 2025, Tampa Bay had a lot thrown at them. Hurricane damage to Tropicana Field forced them to play their home schedule at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, the Yankees spring facility. On top of that disruption, they finished 77-85, fourth in the division, their worst mark in several years.
That is the good news for Yankee fans. The bad news is that the Rays are already reloading. Baseball America just put out a new top ten for their system that features arms like Brody Hopkins after a breakout year, plus an entire 2025 draft class getting rave reviews.
We have seen this movie:
- Strengths: Elite player development, especially on the pitching side, and a front office that finds value in the cracks of everyone else’s roster.
- Weaknesses: Payroll limitations are real, and when their player development pipeline hits a lull, it shows fast.
- Trend: Short term sideways, long term you can never count them out.
From a Yankees perspective, the Rays are the team you can never relax around. Even in a “down” season, they are the ones who can suddenly pull a 95 win year out of nowhere if the prospects hit and two waiver claims turn into late inning monsters.
The Yankees: Co Favorites Or Just Keeping Pace?
So where does that leave the Yankees in this arms race?
On paper, 2025 was another strong year. The Yankees went 94-68, finished second in the AL East by tiebreaker, and had the best run differential in the division at plus 164, thanks to 849 runs scored and 685 runs allowed. Their Pythagorean record says they played more like a 97 win team.
The offense was a monster. Those 849 runs led all of baseball, powered by 274 home runs. Aaron Judge had one of the best seasons of his career, hitting .331 with 53 homers and 114 RBI, and winning another MVP. Jazz Chisholm Jr. posted a 30 30 season. Cody Bellinger hit .272 with 29 homers and brought real defensive flexibility.
On the mound, Max Fried went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA, and Carlos Rodón led the staff with 203 strikeouts. The team ERA was 3.91, solidly in the top half of the league. Tim Hill anchored the bullpen with 70 appearances and a 3.09 ERA.
This is not a fringe contender. This is a legitimately strong roster.
The problem is what happened when the schedule dropped from 162 games to a best of five. The Yankees took out Boston in the Wild Card Series, then ran straight into Toronto’s buzzsaw, losing the ALDS 3-1. That is now back to back years where the Yankees have fallen short of a title, even after winning the pennant in 2024.
From where I sit, the Yankees are not chasing the pack. They are firmly in the top tier of the division, neck and neck with Toronto and a step ahead of Boston. The issue is that “top tier of the AL East” is not the same thing as “favorite to win the American League” anymore. When your closest rival just made the World Series and signed another frontline starter, standing still feels a lot like falling behind.
On the farm side, the Yankees are in an interesting middle ground. They have some impact talent near the majors, but they do not match the Orioles volume and do not churn like the Rays. They are better positioned than Boston and Toronto for a long term pipeline, but not by enough that they can ignore the need to keep spending on the big league roster.
What The Yankees Have To Do To Win This Race
Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, I think the Yankees path through this arms race is pretty clear. The debate is not about what they need. It is about whether they are willing to go far enough to get it.
A few things feel non negotiable to me.
- Keep the offense elite, but add more variety.
The power is not the problem. The Yankees should not apologize for leading the league in homers. What they need is a bit more contact and bat control in the middle and bottom of the order, the kind of hitters who make life miserable for playoff caliber pitching staffs when the long ball is not there. - Add at least one more top tier arm.
Even with Fried and Rodón, the Yankees have to look at what Toronto just did with Cease and recognize the reality. The AL East is stacking aces. When Gerrit Cole comes back, that helps, but I still think one more high end starter or a true multi inning October weapon belongs on the shopping list. - Build a bullpen that is seven deep, not three and a half.
October 2025 was another reminder that you cannot fake bullpen depth in modern baseball. The Yankees have pieces. What they lack is the overwhelming number of trusted arms that lets a manager play the matchup game instead of praying his script holds. - Treat run prevention as a core identity.
The Yankees are more athletic than they were a few years ago, but the division is too good to give away extra outs. Tightening the defense and sharpening the baserunning is not sexy, but it is what wins 3 2 games in October when everyone is throwing 98 with a breaking ball that looks like it was designed in a lab.
Most of all, the Yankees need to operate with a level of urgency that matches the division. The Blue Jays are all in. The Red Sox are pushing. The Rays and Orioles are lurking. There is no guarantee that the Yankees window will still be open by the time some of their long term projects fully bloom.
Where The Yankees Really Stand In The AL East Arms Race
When I add it all up, here is my honest answer.
Right now, the AL East arms race looks like a three level battle.
- The Blue Jays and Yankees are on the top shelf, with Toronto holding the short term edge because of the division title and the pennant.
- The Red Sox are the clear next team up, close enough that one big year or one big move could vault them into that top shelf.
- The Rays and Orioles are in the retooling lane, scary enough in the medium term that nobody should sleep on them.
I still believe the Yankees have the talent and the resources to come out ahead over the next few years. They are not some fading giant living on past glory. They are right in the middle of the fight.
But the division is no joke. If the Yankees want to be more than just one of several heavyweights, they are going to have to lean into what makes them unique: a legitimate financial edge, a still strong brand, and a core that is good enough to justify going over the top.
